(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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U.S and allies would have comprehend that U.N penalties may even fall short of what it would take to cripple the nuclear programme of Iran and thus even a military attack will simply delay its nuclear aspirations. Eventually Iran alone can stop Iran!
Iran was never bothered all these years to be stamped as a global hermit not fit to be attuned with any international setups. Probably U.S and allies will focus into this factor which will prompt them to resort for stiff economic sanctions.
The initial set of U.N. sanctions against Iran was based on a Security Council resolution passed in December 2006. This prevented the supply, sale or transfer of anything and everything including technology that may enable Iran to facilitate any nuclear activities. There afterwards the U.N resolutions in March 2007 and March 2008 followed the same resolution of 2006 wanting Iran to come out with a clean chit on its nuclear programme. Still Iran is in the same boat and made adequate advances while keeping certain activities in complete secrecy.
Many times Iran has proved that it is not transparent of its nuclear ambitions. U.S and west will not forget Iran’s revelation on the second enrichment plant in Fordo near Tehran which confirmed all doubts on its weapons’ programme. The key findings in respect of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment near Qom in Iran revealed that IAEA was informed about it only in September, 2009 despite its construction had actually commenced in 2007. Western diplomats believed that Iran was forced to come clean after learning the site had been detected by spy services.
Iran's nuclear program exposed its military dimensions primarily because Tehran has said it will continue to enrich LEU to higher levels. Uranium enriched to a low level is used for nuclear fuel, but if processed to a much higher levels it can be fashioned into a weapon. Last year Iran commenced enrichment of uranium to a higher level, an important step towards for ultimately producing bomb-grade material.
Even India cannot afford to see additional weapons’ powers in its neighborhood than already enough it has. India is very much discomfited by the A.Q. Khan disclosures that the rogue former Pakistan nuclear establishment chief had business links with Iran. Further there is a global concern that Iran due to its geographical location and its presence in the Gulf region as a member of OPEC, may use its nuclear power and possession of bombs for its influence in the region. Even it will lead to acquisition of nuclear weapons by some Arab nations which are prone to use it obstinately. Nuclear weapons of mass destruction will de-stabilize the oil-rich Gulf region, with a negative impact on Asia’s, particularly India’s long-term energy supplies.
The draft of U.N. sanctions introduced by new the Big Three- U.S., Russia and China will go beyond the previous clauses of punishment to Iran. It will have rigid measures meant to restrain not only military activities but also financial and shipping systems. Further it would freeze assets of nuclear-related companies linked to the Revolutionary Guard, and will enforce restriction on member nations for not providing fuel or port services to ships carrying banned cargo to the Islamic republic. The sanctions, backed by France, Britain and Germany will put down a basis for espousal of corresponding tougher penalties by U.S Congress and the European Union.
When U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon came out mildly and appreciated of the positive factors on Iran’s LEU swap agreement, there was some hope that U.S and west will reconsider the idea of clamping fresh sanctions. Ban Ki-Moons remark that the swap agreement could be positive if followed by broader engagement with the international community became more relevant for the Iran as well to present the issue to the international forum and prevail on U.S and western allies.
Unfortunately things are moving from bad to worst. As Iran had already set a bad president for uncaringly and adroitly responding to any threat or pressure from the U.S and west, Iranian experts started declaring that the ruling clerics view their pursuit of weapon as a matter of survival and sanctions by themselves will not do the trick.
Brazil and Turkey can muster more support from the G-15 nations and prevail on the west to understand the situation and reach a consensus on issues.
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